As previously noted, November is often a cruel month in football. The increase of miserable weather and shortening of daylight hours bring people down, and it seems to have this effect on footballers too. A series of poor results can increase the pressure on teams tenfold, leading to break point and, ultimately, a change in manager.
This seems to be heading towards this at Newcastle, or at least would be if it wasn't for one key element. November has been a terrible month for the club, with a pile of injuries and many poor performances.
The 3-0 defeat to Manchester United was an exceedingly frustrating afternoon but since then displays have remained in their underwhelming state.
The team were unlucky to only draw against Sunderland and exceedingly lucky to beat West Brom after a lucky deflection of Papiss Cisse gave the Toon three points.
But since the win over the league's surprise package, the form has not picked up. Instead, the win over the Baggies seems like being the exception - that result is the only win since late September.
Coincidentally this is also in the period since an eight year contract was handed to manager Alan Pardew. It is easy to draw a link between them but the manager was able to construct a team capable of holding its own at the top of the division.
The team that was fielded this stage last season would be able to destroy the current crop despite the fact they largely consist of the very same players. This comes after a hugely deflating game at Southampton, where the newly promoted side could well have reached double or triple the 2-0 margin they eventually finished with.
Post-Southampton was the usual amount of "ah this guy is terrible why is he playing for us get him out of our club" sort of thing. This is always present, but it is always the same failings. They have been aired a lot this season, with many underwhelming displays getting fans both at the ground and watching elsewhere up in arms.
So what has changed in the past year at St. James' Park?
You can point to a potential wide variety of failings. Chief gripe amongst fans on matchday is purely tactical. Last season the team principally played in a 4-4-2 system until the mid-season signing of Cisse, at which point a 4-3-3 tactic took over with Hatem Ben Arfa taking wide right and Demba Ba in a wide left slot.
This bought a great spell with the side dominating proceedings and winning most of their games to seal their top five slot.
This season has seen a more disoriented version of the 4-4-2 revert to the main tactic, reportedly at the insistence of Ba. The striker cut a frustrated figure in the wide left slot last season and apparently insisted on a switch back to the 4-4-2.
The change has suited him, but it's not suited anyone else. Instead it proves our limitations. Jonas Gutierrez is a good defensive winger but changing to this system revealed he had lost some of the pace in his first season, while on the other flank Ben Arfa has reverted to trying to win games single-handedly.
Up top, Cisse and Ba do not click. The two strikers simply get in each other's way and are too similar to work as a coherent front pairing. The only real solution could well to be drop one, as it seems that pairing both is getting us nowhere, but beyond them the team struggles for goals.
Injuries are also, as ever, unhelpful. Last time Newcastle were in European competition was in 2006/07 - a season that saw the team finish 13th in the Premier League having been 1 point off bottom spot early on in the campaign. It also saw us struggle with a staggering 13 players injured during the season, with midfielders and youngsters making up both the defence and strikeforce.
We have struggled with injuries a lot this year too, and it means that once again youngsters are having to fill in with Shane Ferguson, Sammy Ameobi and Gael Bigirimana all playing way more than probably expected.
But this is window dressing behind the issue - the fact we simply do not have enough players and did not buy enough for the Premier League-Europa League rigours.
Last season, players like Ryan Taylor, James Perch and Mike Williamson performed admirably in the absence of other senior professionals. However this led to the strategy of Mike Ashley and Derek Llambias they presumably nicked from a casino.
The strategy is that they have 11 "purple" players, which is basically the most valuable eleven. This is easy to work out as an eleven of Tim Krul, Vurnon Anita, Fabricio Coloccini, Steven Taylor, Davide Santon, Hatem Ben Arfa, Yohan Cabaye, Cheick Tiote, Jonas Gutierrez, Demba Ba and Papiss Cisse.
Beyond that are senior reserve players like Danny Simpson, Ryan Taylor, Perch, Williamson and youngsters. This is slightly give or take - it is debatable who of Simpson and Anita take the right back slot - but the basic admission is they have put the eggs in having a stellar first eleven and reasonable back-up talents.
This is a huge gamble that is definitely backfiring - other clubs make sure they have more than 11 concrete first teamers. Last season the only "purple" with a long term injury was Steven Taylor, who was spent six months out injured.
This time the only game we theoretically had a full host of purples was the Sunderland away game, where Tiote earned a red card.
The mix of all three categories has flavoured the tactical problem. The tactics are purely left to suit who's available, but the players left seem to struggle creating a system.
Pardew wants new players to join in January, and a failure to invest in January will leave us with a dreadful second half.
It is a big problem. We wanted to sign Mathieu Debuchy, Douglas and Luuk de Jong and signed none. Granted de Jong would've been an expensive splurge at eighteen million quid, weezling out of paying an extra million or two to sign Debuchy and/or Douglas was a faintly poor affair.
Failure to invest in the squad in January is not an option - if there are no players bought in we will have a long, miserable second half of the season. Despite the preference for high-class continental options, some half-decent lower league backup is worth an option, but players are still needed.
But until then, something needs to be done to regain the lost coherency. Obviously injuries impact - Cabaye and Steven Taylor are out until February - but something has to be done to at least gain results, nevermind the lack of dominating displays we played last season.
Stoke away tomorrow night is a terrible game to try to regain form, with memories of an incredible win there last season negated by our more recent form. But all we can do is try - one goal can make all the difference, and a win could be the elixir to kick us up the arse and reboot our flagging campaign.
Over to you, Pardew...
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