Friday, 29 November 2013

Can Newcastle Maintain Consistency?

For once, November has actually gone quite well for Newcastle United.

The last few seasons have almost been derailed by poor November's. Last season saw a cataclysmic loss of form in November that saw the rug pulled from under the feet of what had seemed to be a reasonable mid-table campaign, while two seasons back, no wins in November was an ultimate contributor to the sacking of Chris Hughton. Even in the 5th place campaign of 2011-12, the team only managed one win in the Bonfire Night month.

So far, three wins in three is a promising November. Equally impressive was the calibre of the opponents for two of these wins, with the team seeing off both Chelsea and Spurs in impressive and committed team displays.

But arguably as important as those three points were three points over Norwich City, which is an important step towards potential consistency given the season has already yielded defeats to Hull City (at home) and Sunderland.

Three points against teams that are likelier to be towards the bottom end of the Premier League are important if you want to stick ahead of them.

Last season the three teams that finished below Newcastle in the Premier League all got at least three points off the Toon Army, while only three teams in the bottom half failed to get a win off Newcastle last season (QPR, Villa and Norwich). Form like this is an indication things will not go in any way well.

What's interesting is the similarity between the two campaigns, with surprisingly similar statistics. 19 goals conceded ahead of the last game of November is similar to the 18 conceded so far this season.

A more clinical eye for goal - 18 to last season's 13 - has helped out. The only real hammering so far this season was the defeat by Manchester City, with the other defeats all being by a one goal margin.

Indeed, the statistics are surprisingly close between last season and the current one. It just so happens to be the month where divergence occurs. Last November saw the season begin to go downhill, with a run of miserable defeats against West Ham, Swansea, Southampton and Stoke turning a reasonable if underwhelming campaign into a relegation battle.

Part of the change in luck was due to Newcastle's horrifically poor luck with injuries. The only key players not to get long term injuries last season were the out-of-form Cheick Tiote, Jonas Gutierrez and Papiss Cisse, and Demba Ba before his move to Chelsea.

But it also appears as though Pardew now has a tactic that works. It also is interesting that the formation works best when previous key options like Hatem Ben Arfa and Cisse are out of the team, with the three wins all seeing the team begin without all of them.

Last season, it seemed Pardew struggled to figure out the right system to place his team into. The similarity of Cisse and Ba meant a partnership between the two was unlikely, while Pardew never seemed to figure out what to do with Ben Arfa.

Evidently, he still doesn't, given HBA now largely occupies a bench role. Not a bad impact sub to have given his major contributions already this season in victories over Fulham and Aston Villa, but still a sub.

Yoann Gouffran is now employed, and to good effect on the left flank as a cover for the surging runs of Davide Santon. But the Frenchman is turning into a key player, with goals against Chelsea and Norwich and an assist at Spurs.

Its questionable if Moussa Sissoko is really a right-winger but for now he seems to have a decent go in the position. Meanwhile, up-top is one Loic Remy, and the French firecracker striker is in top form right now.

Eight goals means Remy is currently behind only Sergio Aguero and Liverpool's Suarez-Sturridge pairing in the scoring charts. The important of the loan signing from QPR cannot be overestimated - Gouffran with 4 and 2 each for Ben Arfa and Yohan Cabaye is the nearest to the player.

It is up to the riding the summer transfer madhouse and the alleged Director of Football to secure his permanent place, but for now his goals are proving a valuable contribution.

Tim Krul is also returning in some valuable displays, which is also much needed after a few poor performances in 2012-13 (something he was not alone for).

His magnificent display pretty much kept Spurs out at White Hart Lane, and vital stops have also yielded further points.

With players and tactics lining up in good harmony, it means that a good consistent run has emerged since the awful derby defeat.

The aim of the game now is to continue something approaching consistency. Further three points against West Bromwich Albion will be a good starting point on this road. The odds however are good for once, with WBA having thrown away victories late on against Chelsea and Villa recently, although a Peter Odemwingie-inspired victory in 2011 means nothing can be taken for granted.

But it appears as though the Toon Army might be approaching something involving consistency and sanity for once. Let us pray it continues...

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