Newcastle United are a tricky team to predict at the best of times, but last season was even more bizarre than usual.
Things looked bleak at the start of the 2013-14 season. The arrival of bumbling word-mangling former gaffer Joe Kinnear as Director of Football filled fans with dread, which grew as he failed to make a single permanent signing before the season.
Defeat in the Tyne-Wear Derby in October made fans panic even more that a relegation battle was looming. But then from seemingly nowhere, the seeds of a European challenge were sown with a string of victories. The high point was undoubtedly a first away win at Manchester United since 1972 and it looked for all the world like we were about to see success. Then, naturally, Mike Ashley cashed in Yohan Cabaye for £20million and everything fell apart.
Much has been written on everything that went wrong in the aftermath of Cabaye's departure in late January - not least on Alan Pardew's still-preposterous headbutt at Hull five weeks later. But despite that incident on Humberside and a horrible run of form that saw the team lose 14 in 20 Premier League outings, Pardew remains and surprisingly has been backed in the transer market.
Around £30million has been spent on new players to bolster a squad that was in mutinous mood and while rumoured targets like Loic Remy, Alexander Lacazette and Clement Grenier haven't signed, the club still looks a stronger prospect.
One thing that fans will not want to remember from this pre-season was the tragic news in mid-July of two Newcastle supporters being among those killed in the shooting down of Malaysian Airlines Flight 17 in Eastern Ukraine. John Alder and Liam Sweeney were travelling to New Zealand for the team's pre-season tour in the Oceanic nation, and the sad news of their loss will be commemorated by a series of tributes ahead of the season-opening clash with Manchester City.
A few thoughts on the new campaign:
What Would Be A Great Season?: Not giving up halfway through, and instead having a season that doesn't give the club the air of falling to bits. Maybe even a European or silverware challenge if we're lucky.
What Would Be A Horrible Season?: The much vaunted new signings fail to adjust and lower mid-table - even relegation - become real problems.
What's The Likelier Outcome?: 10th place last season was probably about right for a squad that started well and ended poorly. While Champions League talk is extremely premature, there is space and talent there for a decent start.
Key Player: Siem de Jong. The new Newcastle number 10 is a four-time Eredivisie winner and has captained and scored for Ajax in the Champions League. The Premier League will be a jump but he is expected to be a focal point for the new attack, and if he does live up to his billing, he should be good.
Needs To Improve: Dreadful defending dogged the second-half of Newcastle's 2013-14 season, and nobody covered themselves in glory as the number of thrashings went up and up and up. Better defending is an absolute must.
Will Be Missed: The goals of Loic Remy kept Newcastle in the top half last season and an extra goalscorer is still needed. Mathieu Debuchy was also rated the league's best full back by WhoScored.com, and its important Daryl Janmaat hits the ground running.
Good That He's Still Here: Tim Krul's World Cup penalty shootout cameo did bring him to the world football stage in the most peculiar way. Despite speculation linking him with Barcelona and AC Milan, he remains on Tyneside and will remain important.
Why Is He Still Here: Many would say owner and manager, given last season felt like Mike Ashley only cared that Sports Direct and other brands were getting free billboards, and Alan Pardew was picking poor teams when he wasn't behaving like a total moron. In terms of players, the continued employment of Gabriel Obertan remains baffling - not least given he's gone ahead of the more gifted and useful Hatem Ben Arfa in the pecking order.
Incoming: This has been a surprisingly busy summer on Tyneside, with seven new signings. The biggest individual purchase is £12M French winger Remy Cabella, who moves from Montpellier after almost joining in January. Also joining him in attacking midfield is de Jong, who joins from Ajax for £6M. The same fee was also spent on Monaco striker Emmanuel Riviere, who has scored 3 times in pre-season. Spanish striker Ayoze Perez also joins to support the front line after signing from Tenerife, while Shakthar Donetsk's Facundo Ferreyra is on a season-long loan. The controversial signing of Sunderland's Jack Colback caused a few amusing escapades between the two fans, while Dutch full back Daryl Janmaat concludes the signings so far after joining from Feyernoord. Nottingham Forest duo Karl Darlow and Jamaal Lascelles will also move to Tyneside, although they will spend this season on loan with the Championship side. Surprisingly, even more are still expected.
Outgoing: Three strikers light is the main out, with Loic Remy and Luuk de Jong leaving after loan spells, and Shola Ameobi leaving after 14 years in the first team. There was also a departure for Mathieu Debuchy, with the full-back moving to London to join Arsenal. Dan Gosling and James Tavernier have left, while Sylvain Marveux is loaned out back to France. Despite Pardew's best efforts, Ben Arfa and Jonas Gutierrez are still here.
The Manager: After a difficult 2012-13, 2013-14 was even weirder for Pardew. The Newcastle manager had good runs of form that included a first win at Manchester United since 1972, then embarked on the single worst form of any Newcastle manager in the modern era. 14 defeats in 20 Premier League games, like he managed, is inexcusable and he needs to hit the ground running. Not swearing at opposing managers or headbutting opposition players would also help.
Something To Keep From Last Year: There was some evidence of an attempt at playing a more passing-oriented game at times last year. This ball control can be useful, and certainly its a start, but it needs refining and then having a potent menace added to it.
Something To Improve: Attacking movement and defensive positioning - particularly in times of injury or missing players. The loss of Cabaye coincided with the start of Ben Arfa's move to exile, which left a thuddingly dull attack, while the defence just fell to pieces. Rectifying both of these issues is most certainly required.
Pre-Season:
Oldham (A) 2-1 defeat
Sydney FC (in New Zealand) 4-0 win
Wellington Phoenix (A) 1-0 win
Sheffield Wednesday (A) 1-0 win
Malaga (in Germany) 3-1 defeat
Schalke 04 (A) 3-1 win
Huddersfield Town (A) 2-2 draw
Real Sociedad (H) 1-0 win
A Word On The New Kits: The new home strip, as has been the case for the last two seasons, was the last Premier League home strip to be unveiled, and this time feature an odd black triangle on the front. The shame is the kit actually would've looked nice without the triangle and the perennially unwanted Wonga.com logo. The away strip is a decent looking grey number with "NEWCASTLE UNITED FC" pinstripes, and a member's 4th strip was debuted during the home clash with Real Sociedad, consisting of a white shirt with a grey chevron. A third strip is as yet unconfirmed.
Personal Starting XI:
Krul - Janmaat, Yanga-Mbiwa, Coloccini, Santon - Tiote, Sissoko - Ben Arfa, de Jong, Cabella - Riviere/Ferreyra
Likely Starting XI:
Krul - Janmaat, Williamson, Coloccini, Haidara - Sissoko, Colback, Tiote, Cabella - de Jong, Gouffran
So, the all important final question...
Where Will We Finish?
The squad renovation and healing process from the depressing end to the 2013-14 season is in full swing. Talk of the Champions League from Pardew and some players is extremely premature and it will take a few years to create a squad ready for such a go. But at the very least, we should better last season's 10th place finish.
In a case of deja vu, Newcastle open the season with a clash with Manchester City. With any luck, there won't be a repeat of the goal disallowing incident that marred the home clash with the Citizens in January and everything that followed.
Beyond then is another 9 months and hopefully the Toon Army will receive the full quota of excitement, rather than a depressing streak replacing the last three and a half months.
The challenge is back on.
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